Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 4.572484 5.406989 6.330998 7.427213 8.689326 10.093887 11.772214
2025-06-08 3.198970 4.286234 5.624763 7.380796 9.609228 12.326896 15.874119
2025-06-15 2.528615 3.765253 5.428261 7.796341 11.043770 15.297344 21.237742
2025-06-22 1.974382 3.231058 5.058119 7.851380 11.943153 17.632628 26.033754
2025-06-29 1.573264 2.805276 4.726493 7.854020 12.706017 19.806996 30.798793
2025-07-06 1.272419 2.457090 4.427370 7.822403 13.366260 21.854411 35.545205
2025-07-13 1.158546 2.392416 4.557666 8.467324 15.122973 25.690035 43.301896
2025-07-20 1.008672 2.226879 4.480969 8.741165 16.291065 28.701359 50.038805
2025-07-27 0.893986 2.101471 4.448642 9.075134 17.580075 32.005496 57.509075
2025-08-03 0.762189 1.910739 4.258120 9.084823 18.287622 34.387843 63.642257
2025-08-10 0.622871 1.670537 3.926269 8.770619 18.356812 35.660815 67.977745
2025-08-17 0.502259 1.442798 3.577015 8.363325 18.188440 36.475124 71.550997
2025-08-24 0.423492 1.299810 3.390540 8.275267 18.652612 38.524226 77.590545
2025-08-31 0.356764 1.170686 3.212352 8.179649 19.093654 40.579314 83.837055
2025-09-07 0.330063 1.144154 3.271250 8.618210 20.686942 44.973905 94.800779
2025-09-14 0.287298 1.059329 3.170430 8.672381 21.463343 47.828420 103.035379
2025-09-21 0.248546 0.975331 3.055173 8.673114 22.118524 50.489159 111.086834
2025-09-28 0.214208 0.894956 2.933431 8.637810 22.684392 53.007624 119.034920
2025-10-05 0.209668 0.914997 3.094179 9.341692 25.026479 59.412974 135.265472
2025-10-12 0.191944 0.882959 3.099570 9.640418 26.442905 63.956965 147.980439
2025-10-19 0.177807 0.860126 3.128102 10.004706 28.053035 69.037755 162.142673
2025-10-26 0.156096 0.800654 3.032940 10.015260 28.794696 72.267241 172.614063
2025-11-02 0.129564 0.711445 2.824345 9.672498 28.609319 73.407406 178.686954